The Socio-Technical Dynamics of Renewable Energy Policies in Germany

Growing environmental concerns and human-caused climate change increase the pressure on policymakers for rapid action to transform how societies convert energy, produce goods, or transport freight. Innovation and technological progress may contribute to such transitions. However, technological change is hard to predict, requires time, and may be laden with political conflicts. Although more sustainable technologies are available, incentivizing demand and deployment are crucial to accelerate transitions. As transformations develop over decades, understanding the temporal dynamics of policies is critical for governance. In Germany, the renewable energy act incentivizes the deployment of renewable energy technologies by remunerating electricity fed into the common grid. This dissertation assesses how socio-technical developments of solar and wind energy conversion technologies and the renewable energy act interactively shaped each other. Drawing on frameworks such as technological innovation systems, legitimacy, framing, and policy feedback, the contents of 16,485 newspaper articles and additional empirical studies were scrutinized. Combining methods from natural language processing, machine learning, and statistics, this thesis develops text models to assess changes in content and sentiment in large corpora over time. Three studies focus on the shifts in media framing of the German renewable energy act, the underlying co-evolution of technological and policy processes, and the development of the legitimacy of wind power. The results confirm that renewable energy deployment and policy are contested with varying intensity over time. Where change ought to occur, non-linear dynamics of innovation and technology uptake, growing policy costs, economic interests of incumbents, and technology side effects increasingly complicate policymaking over time. The early phases of the renewable energy act were shaped by positive expectations toward renewable energy technologies, which later shifted towards an emphasis on policy costs. The findings highlight the importance of the prosperity of underlying innovation systems as supporters of policy ambition and maintenance over time. However, policy costs and side effects must be managed effectively to withstand increasing contestation. These results may contribute to advancing the successful governance of sectoral transitions likely to unfold over several decades

Evaluation of photovoltaic storage systems on energy markets under uncertainty using stochastic dynamic programming

The rising share of intermittent renewable energy production in energy systems increasingly poses a threat to system stability and the price level in energy markets. However, the effects of renewable energy production onto electricity markets also give rise to new business opportunities. The expected increase in price differences increases the market potential for storage applications and combinations with renewable energy production. The value of storage depends critically on the operation of the storage system. In this study, we evaluate large-scale photovoltaic (PV) storage systems under uncertainty, as renewable energy production and electricity prices are fundamentally uncertain. In comparison to households who largely consume the stored energy themselves, the major business case for large-scale PV and storage systems is arbitrage trading on the electricity markets. The operation problem is formulated as a Markov decision process (MDP). Uncertainties of renewable energy production are integrated into an electricity price model using ARIMA-type approaches and regime switching. Due to non-stationarity and heteroskedasticity of the underlying processes, an appropriate stochastic modeling procedure is developed. The MDP is solved using stochastic dynamic programming (SDP) and recombining trees (RT) to reduce complexity taking into account the different time scales in which decisions have to be taken. We evaluate the solution of the SDP problem against Monte Carlo simulations with perfect foresight and against a storage dispatch heuristic. The program is applied to the German electricity and reserve power market to show the potential increase in storage value with higher price spreads, and evaluate a possible imposition of the feed-in levy onto energy directly stored from the common grid

Evaluation of photovoltaic storage systems on energy markets under uncertainty using stochastic dynamic programming

The rising share of intermittent renewable energy production in energy systems increasingly poses a threat to system stability and the price level in energy markets. However, the effects of renewable energy production onto electricity markets also give rise to new business opportunities. The expected increase in price differences increases the market potential for storage applications and combinations with renewable energy production. The value of storage depends critically on the operation of the storage system. In this study, we evaluate large-scale photovoltaic (PV) storage systems under uncertainty, as renewable energy production and electricity prices are fundamentally uncertain. In comparison to households who largely consume the stored energy themselves, the major business case for large-scale PV and storage systems is arbitrage trading on the electricity markets. The operation problem is formulated as a Markov decision process (MDP). Uncertainties of renewable energy production are integrated into an electricity price model using ARIMA-type approaches and regime switching. Due to non-stationarity and heteroskedasticity of the underlying processes, an appropriate stochastic modeling procedure is developed. The MDP is solved using stochastic dynamic programming (SDP) and recombining trees (RT) to reduce complexity taking into account the different time scales in which decisions have to be taken. We evaluate the solution of the SDP problem against Monte Carlo simulations with perfect foresight and against a storage dispatch heuristic. The program is applied to the German electricity and reserve power market to show the potential increase in storage value with higher price spreads, and evaluate a possible imposition of the feed-in levy onto energy directly stored from the common grid

Optimal Investment in Energy Efficiency as a Problem of Growth-Rate Maximisation : Evidence and Policy Implications

Following recent developments in economic and finance theory, we formulated in a recent article the question of when and how much a consumer might optimally invest in energy efficiency as a problem of wealth-growth-rate maximisation. In this contribution, we scale up this framework to a unique dataset combining the top three wealth quantiles, and nine generations of single and terraced homes in Germany: 21% of the total building stock, altogether told. We calculate the share of dwellings over time whose consumers see incentive to retrofit, and are able to reproduce (i) the annual variation in the uptake of government subsidies, (ii) the tendency of consumers to wait out the lifetime of their current heating system, (iii) the slow diffusion of new heaters, and (iv) the propensity of consumers to shun deep retrofits. We additionally uncover new wealth effects, most notably the proclivity of richer consumers whose wealth growth faster to retrofit less, and when they do, to etrofit to shallower depths. We also compute the effects of the German government’s retrofit subsidy schemes, and the proposed carbon tax on heating, employing a counterfactual approach. We discover that wealthier consumers are in general harder to influence via policies. Tracking the effects of policies along several dimensions, we show, among other things, that the tax and subsidy schemes have effects of comparable sizes, and that their effect when combined is greater than the sum of their individual contributions. All of this has implications for policymakers: the broad conclusion of our work is that household wealth, diminishing marginal utility, and stochasticity in fuel prices can largely explain the diffusion of energy-efficiency measures. Our consequent policy recommendations include a widening of the subsidy base through a reduction or elimination of minimum investment requirements and a redefinition of the relevant thermal standards, increased subsidies for gas “renewable ready” heaters to encourage a step-wise transition towards electricity, and a push for the government itself to become a major player in the renovation market

Optimal Investment in Energy Efficiency as a Problem of Growth Rate Maximisation

Despite the vast literature on the energy-efficiency gap, there is a general dearth of investment models which incorporate the consumer\u27s temporal freedom in the investment decision. Focusing on the building sector, we formulate optimal investment in energy efficiency as a problem of wealth growth-rate maximisation under uncertainty, subject to the diminishing marginal utility of retrofitting. The resulting model provides an unambiguous answer to the question of how much, and at what point in time, consumers with given wealth dynamics and parameters should invest in energy-efficiency measures for their particular dwelling. We treat in detail two foundational wealth dynamics: consumers who solely earn a fixed income, and those whose wealth grows multiplicatively. The differences in decision-making between these cases is seen to be substantial, with the latter group exhibiting further significant heterogeneity. All of this has profound implications for the social planner: on the one hand, we show how he must work harder to influence wealthier consumers; on the other, the model provides a methodology for crafting highly targeted policy interventions

A survey on the user acceptance of PV battery storage systems

This study presents the results of an analysis of user acceptance of PV battery storage systems. A structural equation model is developed based on Davis’ technology acceptance model (TAM). It is expanded by integrating elements of Ajzen’s theory of planned behavior (TPB). The main factors influencing the acceptance of PV battery storage systems are evaluated and analyzed. Empirical findings indicate that survey participants’ acceptance of PV battery storage systems is mainly influenced by their behavioral beliefs, perceived knowledge about battery storage systems, perceived ease of use, and perceived usefulness of PV battery storage systems. The results indicate a high degree of acceptance for PV battery storage systems

Wealth, Consumption, and Energy-Efficiency Investments

We revisit optimal investment in energy-efficiency, presenting a decision framework built around the agent\u27s wealth and wealth dynamic. An investment rule in the form of a trigger is derived such that the agent invests the first time the energy-carrier price crosses this threshold from below. Wealthier consumers, and those whose wealth grows faster, are seen to have less incentive to invest in energy-efficiency and alternative technologies. We investigate the market for heat pump upgrades in Germany and find scant evidence of an energy-efficiency gap. Modest carbon taxes coupled with subsidies suffice to generate stated policy goals in the short term

The Legitimacy of Wind Power in Germany

Legitimacy is a crucial factor determining the success of technologies in the early stages of development and for maintaining resource flows as well as public and political support across the technology life cycle. In sustainability transitions that unfold over long periods of time, the maintenance of legitimacy of technologies identified as vital for sustainability becomes a key challenge. In the energy sector, wind power contributes to the transition to an energy system with low greenhouse gas emissions. In Germany, wind power recently faced a series of lawsuits and decreasing investment activity. Therefore, we assess the legitimacy of wind power in Germany by analyzing newspaper articles from four national newspapers from 2009 to 2018. A large amount of articles motivates the use of topic models and statistical methods to shed light on the changing alignment of wind power with its context. The results show that various issues temporarily gain prominence on the agenda. Lately, the legitimacy of wind power in Germany is increasingly challenged by adverse effects on humans, animals, and landscapes. Policymakers and project developers may address aspects of pragmatic legitimacy, such as civic participation and the local distribution of profits

Steelmaking Technology and Energy Prices: The Case of Germany

We examine the relationship between the choice of steelmaking technology and energy prices in Germany using data beginning 1970. The analysis indicates that technology choice began to cointegrate with comparative energy prices in the early 90s. The short and long-run effects of energy prices are captured in a partial adjustment model; the ratio of electricity to coal prices is seen to exert sizeable influence on the short and long-term deployment of the electric arc furnace for secondary steelmaking. If current trends in energy prices continue, the share of secondary steelmaking in total steel production is expected to increase rather slowly

Topic Modeling Uncovers Shifts in Media Framing of the German Renewable Energy Act

Renewable energy policies have been recognized as a cornerstone in the transition toward low-emission energy systems. Media reports are an important variable in the policy-making process, interrelating politicians and the public. To understand the changes in media framing of a pioneering renewable energy support act, we collected 6,645 articles from five Germany-wide newspapers between 2000 and 2017 on the German Renewable Energy Act. We developed a structural topic model based on a change-point analysis to assess the temporal patterns of newspaper coverage. We introduced the notion of topic sentiment to elucidate the emotional content of topics. The results show that after its enactment, optimism about renewable energies dominated the media agenda. After 2012, however, the Renewable Energy Act was more associated with its costs. Such shifts in renewable energy policy framing may limit political leverage to reach ambitious climate and energy targets